The ecosystem of health and natural resource management is influenced by the social, political, economic system and institutional framework in a region. Rapid economic growth in Bangalore and its environs in recent decades has resulted in environmental changes in Bannerghatta National Park (BNP) and its buffer (of 5 km). Land use land cover (LULC) change analysis with a modelling technique such as cellular automata (CA)-Markov was used for quantitatively exploring forest cover transitions. The analysis of LULC dynamics has revealed loss of vegetation cover from 85.78 per cent to 66.37 per cent (1973–2015) and severe environmental stress. The region has lost moist deciduous cover, from 26.1 per cent to 13.8 per cent, and witnessed an increase in horticulture, from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent (1973–2015). The visualization of likely land use in 2027 indicates the loss of forest cover from 41.38 per cent to 35.59 per cent with an increase in urban area from 4.49 per cent to 9.62 per cent (with new residential and commercial layouts in the buffer zone of BNP in violation of the eco-sensitive zone norms as per Section 5(1) of Environment Protection Act 1986). The study provides insights for developing an appropriate planning framework towards conservation and the sustainable management of ecologically sensitive national parks.

Keywords : Urbanization, Bannerghatta National Park, ecosystem services, CA-Markov, modelling and visualization